Vietnam Airlines – Outperform (HVN : UPCoM – Transportation Services)

 Vietnam Airlines – Outperform (HVN : UPCoM – Transportation Services)


  • HVN has given final guidance for consolidated FY2018 results suggesting net sales of VND 102,000 billion (+22% y/y) and an EBT of VND 2,800 billion (-11% y/y).


  • During 2018, HVN carried 22 million passengers (+0.4% y/y) and 350,000 tons of cargo (+8% y/y).


  • For FY2019, HSC calls for net sales of VND 101,327 billion (-0.06% y/y) and an NPAT of VND 3,047 billion (+27% y/y).


  • The main driver being our assumption of growth of 5% y/y in the number of passengers carried and a fall of 15% y/y in average fuel prices.


  • Moreover, we expect that Jetstar Pacific will become profitable from 2019 onwards thanks to a large expansion in their fleet and of course our expectation of lower fuel costs.


  • We also see a short-term catalyst for the stock as HVN plans to list on HOSE in April 2019.


  • We have a fair value price of VND 36,000 which values the stock at a forward FY2019 PE of 16.xs.


  • Rating Outperform.




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