Vietnam Daily Market Watch – HSC

Ngày đăng December 11, 2018

Market commentary – Both bourses today made brief incursions into positive territory in the morning session, only to again close the day lower. Today’s losses, however, were more modest, with declines of around a seventh and a fifth of a percent at the closing bells in Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi respectively. Turnover again fell by around ten percent to be slightly below recent mid-term averages. Market breadth broadened with 28 stocks going to the ceiling and 26 stocks falling to the floor. Foreigners remained at around yesterday’s levels in terms of percentages but declined in absolute terms. They repeated the recent pattern of being net buyers on the Ho Chi Minh exchange but net sellers in Hanoi. The put through market remained active with a third of trades done in Ho Chi Minh and a quarter of those in Hanoi done via put throughs. TCB again dominated proceedings, with large trades in NVL; EIB; VND and VNM also seen going through. In Hanoi there was a large deal in SHS and a smaller deal in VGC also observed.


Foreigners were active buyers and sellers of VNM; VRE and HPG, being net buyers of VNM and VRE, but net sellers of HPG. Foreigners were also active buyers of E1VFVN30 and MSN, and active net sellers of VIC and VJC.


  • Bank shares were mixed today as CTG rebounded to lead the gainers, which were matched by losers led by VPB. STB failed to trouble the scorers.




  • Nonbanks shares were all in the naughty corner again today, led by insurers BVH and PVI.




  • Consumer and retail names continued on their merry way, despite KDF slumping heavily and joined by BHN and others.




  • Tech stocks were again weaker, with FPT again declining while YEG marked time.




  • Manufacturing names succumbed to gravity today, with AAA the sole gainer. HSG; EVE and DRC led the pack down, while DQC and TMT marked time.




  • Resource names also retreated today, led by GAS and PVS. PXS again failed to get off the mark, while PVD managed modest gains.




  • Real estate and construction stocks, however, were stronger today led by KBC; DIG and VRE. SJS fell sharply, joined by TDH; DXG and NVL. CII and KDH trod water.




  • Agriproducts and aquaculture stocks had a tough day at the office, with DPM the lone gainer, while GTN and BFC led the pack down. VHC failed to trouble the scorers.




  • Pharmaceutical stocks again fared poorly despite a rebound at IMP. DHG and TRA fell by two percent, while DMC again marked time.




  • Utilities, transport and logistics stocks were mixed to lower as NT2; NCT; PPC and VSC posted small gains, while VSH; GMD and others posted larger losses. VNS didn’t get off the mark.




Vietnamese stocks lower again – The market in Hanoi started in positive territory but succumbed to gravity in late morning trading and remained lower than yesterday’s close in the afternoon. In Ho Chi Minh, two brief forays over the gain line also ended with the Southern bourse down at the closing bell. Rather dramatic declines in oil prices, despite the successful conclusion to the OPEC+ production cut talks, and a rampant US dollar were of course not what the doctor ordered for emerging markets.


In terms of sectors financial stocks fared badly, while consumer names and resource issues took up the yoke. In Ho Chi Minh SAB contributed just over half a percent to the market, while yesterday’s hero GAS was pulling by about the same amount in the other direction. There were no other contributors or detractors of note, again suggesting domestic investors may be playing in the small- and mid-cap space. In Hanoi minor gains by VCG were outweighed by a slightly negative contribution by PVS. 


The four futures contracts again performed better than the cash equities market today. However, discounts which range from 8.2 to 10.8 index points continue to prevail and showed only minimal improvement. Given the approaching contract maturity we would have perhaps hoped for more improvement and can but see investor sentiment still as weak. Turnover was again lackluster and, while foreigners remained net buyers overall, it is not enough to overcome a lack of enthusiasm by local investors who appear to already be in year-end mode.


Asian shares & major currencies – Asian shares, with the exception of the Nikkei 225, were mostly higher today following modest gains on Wall Street and other major US bourses on Friday. As for currencies, the US$ (97.09) rebounded strongly when measured against its trade weighted ICE index to be within sight again of its 52-week high of November 12. The Euro (1.1368) fell heavily against the greenback, as did the Pound Sterling (1.2570). The US currency was also buying more fewer Japanese Yen (113.1), and again firmed against the Chinese Yuan (6.8995).


Oil prices edge higher – Crude oil traded plunged from this time a day ago, with active month WTI futures crude oil contracts trading at US$ 51.02 at the time of writing, and Brent Crude down over US$2 at US59.96 per barrel. This last decline comes despite analysts seeing the OPEC+ deal as a success, and believing that the 1.2 million barrel per days cuts will balance global supply and demand in 2019. Goldman Sachs feels that the decline may extend to 1.7 million barrels per day as some countries that have been exempted from the cuts, such as Libya, Iran and Nigeria may see supply declines anyway.


While data reveals China’s November crude oil imports hit a record 10.48 million barrels per day, or equal to almost all of Saudi Arabia’s record 10.72 million barrel per day production, Morgan Stanley revised down its crude price forecasts for 2019 significantly. In particular, it has trimmed its outlook for Brent Crude by US$10 per barrel to US$68.50 per barrel. However, delays and extra production from non-participants in the above deal may yet frustrate attempts to balance the market according to others.


Perhaps the direction of US production, currently standing at 11.7 million barrels per day, and which has been a one way street in 2018, coupled with the impact of the US/China trade war to Chinese imports will decide whether the bulls or the bears are proved correct. The latter, however, while not yet reflected in the numbers is more of a slow burn and may take some time to be properly evaluated.


In global macro and general news – Data released yesterday evening showed that industrial production in October in the UK fell 0.8% y/y, compared with it being flat y/y in September and also lower than market estimates calling for a decline of only 0.2% y/y. Also in the UK, balance of trade figures showed a trade deficit of GBP3.30 billion in October, having widened GPB0.97 billion from a month earlier. Imports rose 2.8% y/y for the month, while exports only rose by 1.0% y/y. Meanwhile GDP in October in the UK grew by 1.5% y/y, which was the same as that recorded a month earlier but slightly lower than market consensus estimates.


Today the slew of data from the UK continued with the unemployment rate in October remaining at 4.1%, unchanged from a month earlier and in line with market expectations. Average earnings including and excluding bonuses in October both advance by 3.3%, which in both cases was slightly ahead of expectations and also marginally ahead of results in the previous month.


In the US there were 7.079 million job openings in October, ahead of the downwardly revised 6.960 million in September as well as market expectations for 6.995 million job openings for the month. Also in the US, consumer inflation expectations for November of a 2.97% y/y rise are little changed from the 3.00% hike a month earlier. Meanwhile in Japan machine tool orders in November fell 16.8% y/y, plunging for the 0.7% slide recorded a month earlier. Lastly, Chinese vehicle sales in November showed a 13.9% y/y decline in November, accelerating from an 11.7% y/y drop in October.





HCMC – The VN index fell today as turnover narrowed to VND 3,883.38 billion or US$ 166.88 million. The index lost 0.14% and closed at 954.58. 114 stocks up while 179 stocks down. And 14 stocks went to the ceiling while 8 stocks dropped to the floor. Foreigners accounted for 12.01% of the buying value and 10.82% of the selling value.


Foreign buying fell in actual terms but rose in percentage terms. While foreign selling also fell further in actual terms but rose in percentage terms. Foreigners turned net buyers to the tune of VND 46.23 billion worth of shares in HCMC. And we saw thirty four transactions in the put through market today.


Foreigners were active buyers of E1VFVN30; VNM; VRE; HPG and MSN. They also actively sold HPG; VNM; VRE; VJC and VIC. The put through market was less active today with two enormous; one super jumbo; six jumbo; six large and some medium sized & smaller deals accounting for 31.98% of total turnover.


We saw 24,490,000 shares of TCB; 1,877,771 shares of NVL; 6,000,000 shares of EIB; 2,500,000 shares of VND and 357,920 shares of VNM going through. Foreigners were more active in the put through session in the VNM & VRE deals and then five other smaller deals today in the market.


E1VFVN30 was down 0.33% today closing at VND 15,150.


Hanoi – The Hanoi market went down today while turnover came to VND 573.20 billion or US$ 24.63 million. The HN index was down 0.21% to close at 106.59. 61 stocks up while 79 stocks down. And 14 stocks went to the ceiling while 18 stocks dropped to the floor. Foreigners accounted for 1.28% of the buying value and 2.54% of the selling value.


Foreigners were net sellers to the tune of VND 7.25 billion worth of shares. And we saw eighteen medium and small sized deals today during more active put through session in Hanoi accounting for 24.31% of total turnover.


We saw 4,000,000 shares of SHS; 2,230,000 shares of VGC and 700,000 shares of VCG along with some smaller transactions in the put through market today.




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